Exit Poll Results 2019: The exit polls will give an indication of the national mood ahead of the counting of votes on May 23.
Lok Sabha Elections Exit Poll Results 2019: The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to form the next government at the Centre, according to exit poll results released after the seventh and last phase of the Lok Sabha elections. BJP and its alliance partners are projected to win close to 300 seats, while the Congress+ is likely to win 128 seats. In the 2014 elections, the NDA together won 336 seats.
Exit Poll Results 2019: Check state-wise Lok Sabha election exit poll results
India TV predicts a landslide 7 out of 7 seat win in Delhi for the BJP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won all of these seven seats with a vote share of 46.6 per cent.
Many exit polls predicted that SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh is likely to trump the BJP in the country’s politically most crucial state. The BJP had won 71 and its ally Apna Dal two of its 80 seats in 2014. The NDA may not touch even the halfway mark of 40 in Uttar Pradesh this time, some exit polls said.
Exit Poll Results 2019 LIVE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election rally for the last phase of Lok Sabha polls. (File)
A day after exit polls predicted a clear majority for the BJP-led NDA, Union Minister Niti Gadkari said ‘they (exit polls) are only an indicator.’ “Exit poll results are not final. They are only an indicator. The results will come on May 23. But results are, by and large, in tune with exit poll outcome,” Nitin Gadkari said. READ THE FULL STORY HERE
A day after several exit polls predicted victory for the ruling NDA with a comfortable majority, the rupee opened with gains of 86 paise or 1.22 per cent against the US Dollar. It was trading at 69.36 in the initial trading hour. Sensex and Nifty also jumped by 2.5 per cent. While the Sensex rose 951 points to hit 38,882, the Nifty gained 284 points to open at 11,691. Read more here.
With various forecasts for the Lok Sabha election results out, which ones are more reliable than others? A veteran analyst describes the various methods, challenges and shortcomings in conducting an exit poll. Read our explainer.
The News 24-Chanakya exit polls has predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA with 336 seats. The UPA, meanwhile, is likely to settle at 91 seats.
After its impressive show in the Assembly elections, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi led by K Chandrasekar Rao is likely to continue its winning run in Telangana in the Lok Sabha polls.
Times Now-VMR: TRS - 13; Congress - 2; BJP - 1; AIMIM - 1
India TV-CNX: TRS - 14 seats; Congress - 2; AIMM - 1
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, among the 17 seats in the Telangana region of undivided Andhra Pradesh, 11 had been won by TRS, with a vote share of 34.9 per cent. Congress had won two seats with 24.7 per cent votes.
The Neta-NewsX Exit Poll shows the NDA falling short of a simple majority. NDA will bag 242 seats while UPA will win 164 seats, it predicted. In Uttar Pradesh, the NewsX poll predicted BSP-RLD-SP’s Mahagathbandhan will win 43 seats.
Here is what the pollsters have in store for Karnataka
Times Now-VMR: BJP 21| Congress 7 | Others 0
CNN-IPSOS: BJP 21-23 | Congres 5-7 | Others 0
India TV: BJP 17 | Congress 11 | Others 0
ABP-AC Nielsen: BJP 15 | Congress 13| Other 0
C-voter: BJP 18 | Congress 9 | Other 1
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata party had emerged as the single largest party in the state with 17 seats and a vote share of 43.4 per cent. The Indian National Congress had won 9 seats with 41.2 per cent votes.
Here is what News18-IPSOS exit poll predicts in Assam:
NDA: 8 to 10 seats
Asom Gana Parishad: 2
Congress: 2
In the other Northeast states, the NDA is expected to win majority, cornering 17-19 of the seats, with the Congress emerging victorious in four to six constituencies.
In Bihar, the Congress' efforts to string together a Mahagathbandhan along with Tejashwi Yadav's RJD seems to have bit the dust, with people of the state once again giving the mandate to the BJP-JD(U) alliance. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted 38-40 seats for NDA and 0-2 seats for UPA.
In the 2014 elections, BJP had emerged as the single largest party in the state, winning 22 seats with a vote share of 29.9 per cent. Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal was the second-biggest in terms of votes polled, with a share 20.5 per cent, but it was third in terms of seat tally (4).
In Kerala, Congress will bag 13 seats, predicts poll of polls. It has given five seats to the Left and one to the BJP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had emerged as the single largest party in the state with 8 seats and a vote share of 31.5 per cent. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) had won 5 seats with 21.8 per cent votes.
With exit polls showing BJP making inroads in Bengal, where it had won only 2 seats in 2014, TMC accused the ruling party of manipulating EVMs. "I don’t trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together," tweeted Mamata Banerjee.
"Have ‘Delhi media’ who masquerade as ‘national media’ lost their credentials and credibility? So-called Exit Polls will only confuse. We await the verdict of the people. Modi ji had called the number 300 even before Phase 7. Are these numbers to match that? EVM manipulation?" said TMC senior leader Derek O'Brien.
Poll of polls prediction in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Jharkhand:
Rajasthan (25 seats): NDA - 16, Congress - 3, Others- 6
Maharashtra (48 seats): NDA - 36, Congress+NCP - 11
Jharkhand (14 seats): NDA - 9, Congress+JMM - 5
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had emerged as the single largest party, winning 23 seats in Maharashtra. In Rajasthan, BJP won all 25 seats with a vote share of 55.6%. In Jharkhand, BJP emerged as the single largest party with 12 seats and vote share of 40.7 per cent.
Meanwhile, Anthro.ai, which calls itself an 'AI Anthropology experiment', has predicted that the BSP SP RLD combine will win 54 seats in Uttar Pradesh. "We may be wrong about 8 seats. The BSP will win 27. The SP will win 22. The RLD will win 2. We have a few more weak projections for the BSP than for the SP," their blog said.
West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2019:
News18’s IPSOS - TMC 25-28 | BJP 3-7 | Others- 5-7
India News-Polstrat- TMC 26 | Congress 2 | BJP 14
Republic-Jan Ki Baat- TMC 28 | Congress 2 | BJP 18-26
Republic- CVoter- TMC 29 | Congress 2 | BJP 11
IN 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP bagged only 2 seats (Asansol and Darjeeling) with 17 per cent vote share.
Here are Republic TV exit poll predictions for West Bengal and Maharashtra
West Bengal - TMC: 29; NDA: 11
Maharashtra - NDA: 34, UPA: 14
As the exit polls predicted a second term for the ruling NDA, former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah said, "Every single exit poll can’t be wrong! Time to switch off the TV, log out of social media & wait to see if the world is still spinning on its axis on the 23rd."
Today’s Chanakya prediction for Madhya Pradesh
BJP: 27 seats
Congress: 2 seats
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 27 of the 29 seats with a vote share of 54.8 per cent, while the Congress, with 35.4 per cent votes, managed to win just two.
Times Now-VMR Exit Poll predicts for Gujarat
NDA: 23
UPA: 3
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won all of the state’s 26 seats with a vote share of 60.1 per cent. Congress was the second in terms of vote share at 33.5 per cent.
Here is News18's IPSOS prediction for West Bengal
TMC: 25 to 28 seats
BJP: 3 to 7 seats
In the previous Lok Sabha elections in 2014, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC had won 34 seats with a vote share of 39.8 per cent. BJP bagged only 2 seats.
Here are the predictions released by pollsters till now:
Pollster BJP Congress Others
Republic TV-C Voter 287 128 127
Republic - Jan Ki Baat 305 124 113
Times Now-VMR 306 142 94
News Nation 282-290 118-126 130-138
According to Republic-Jan Ki Baat exit poll, the NDA is set to bag 305 seats, while the UPA will manage only 124. The SP-BSP combine, which shed 24 years of animosity to seal a pact, is set to mark victory on 26 seats only. The Times Now exit poll predicts 306 seats for the NDA, 132 for UPA, while 104 seats are likely to be bagged by other parties. The Republic CVoter has precited 287 seats for the NDA, 128 for the UPA, while 40 seats have been predicted for the SP-BSP combine.
India TV predicts a landslide 7 out of 7 seat win in Delhi for the BJP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won all of these seven seats with a vote share of 46.6 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party, which polled 33.1 per cent votes, could not win any seat, and nor could the Indian National Congress with its 15.2 per cent votes.
Three exit polls have predicted a big win for the NDA. Two exit polls said the BJP-led NDA will win more than 300 seats and return to form its second successive government. Times Now-VMR says NDA will win 306 and UPA 132 seats.
In the 2014 elections, the NDA together won 336 seats. The BJP swept all seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, and virtually won all of Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh (71 out of 80) as well as Bihar with allies.
According to India Today-Axis, YSR Congress is expected to win anywhere between 18 to 20 seats in Andhra Pradesh while TDP will be down to 4 to 6 seats. In the 2014 elections, N Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP had bagged 16 and emerged as the single largest party with a vote share of 40.8 per cent. The second-biggest party was the Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party, which won 8 seats with 45.7 per cent votes.
In India, exit polls have often proved to be unreliable. There have been several instances when they have predicted the verdict of an election incorrectly. For instance, exit polls on the 2004 Lok Sabha polls wrongly predicted the BJP-led NDA coalition winning again, while in 2009 they underestimated Congress-led UPA’s seat share. In 2014, however, most of the exit polls turned out to be accurate with BJP securing a majority of its own. READ THE STORY HERE
Riding on a 'Modi wave', BJP had swept Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, winning 71 of the 80 seats with a vote share of 42.6%. The Samajwadi Party, under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, was reduced to just 5 seats with a vote share of 22.3 per cent.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, riding a wave of anger and frustration with the previous UPA government, Narendra Modi led the BJP to an unprecedented victory. Its tally of 282 seats marked the end of a successive coalition government since 1989. The Congress, on the contrary, was decimated as it drew a blank in seven states and could not register double digits in any. The grand old party managed to win a mere 44 seats in its worst performance ever. The NDA together won 336 seats.
The voter turnout for the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections was recorded at 61 per cent till 6 pm in 59 constituencies across eight states on Sunday. Now, all eyes will shift to the exit polls, which will be announced at 6.30 pm. The fate of all political parties in the fray will be decided on May 23 and most importantly it will determine whether the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP government can secure a majority of its own for the second time or the Congress-led opposition can stage a surprise comeback. Follow elections 2019 Phase 7 Voting Live Updates